Weekends are really the only time I have a significant amount of spare time. So I decided I would cut into that time by doing this weekly editorial about whatever strikes my fancy. It might be about current news, or games, or maybe something I feel like soapboxing about.
On May 21, Microsoft will be revealing their follow-up to the Xbox 360. Simple as that, speculation is over (and at the same time just beginning). There are two different ways we see the unveil going:
1) Microsoft makes its case to the core gaming fans. That audience is very small, but it is also the most vocal. One of the best marketing tools is a strong word of mouth.
2) Microsoft ignores the small core audience and makes its plea to the mainstream market with casual games and media streaming.
Microsoft has reacted to the trends of media consumption better than most consumer electronics companies have. Their box is the living room box every company wants to have. Families are buying the 360 solely for the purposes of streaming video and listening to music. It is a mere bonus that it plays games. This is important to know, because they may try to attack that market again. However, Joe Consumer doesn’t need a new device to stream from because the 360 already does 1080p video.
This is where the casual games focus would come in. If Microsoft packs a Kinect 2.0 in with every console, it would drive development on the 360 in a more casual sense. Nintendo sold 100 million Wiis because of Wii Sports, so Microsoft trying to make lightning strike twice makes a fair amount of sense, especially because the Kinect is already wildly successful, and there isn’t even much to do with it. The Kinect is still a spectacle for most people, and for good reason. You can control your TV and games with nothing more than your voice and a wave of the hands.
I have no doubt in my mind that with a few good ads showcasing people using the new Kinect, the non-gamer crowd would be chomping at the bit to see what this device is all about.
It is very likely that Kinect and non-game content will take up a portion of the reveal. But what about pleasing us, the core?
They are already making it a pain for people with a job, as the reveal is in the middle of the day. The Sony Meeting where the PS4 was shown was such a success because it was shown in the early evening when the highest number of people would be available to watch. This earlier time is much better for the mainstream press as it gives them time to prepare their story for their flagship shows that evening. It is a small difference, but an important one if you are trying to sell big.
So what will Microsoft do to push 360 owners into the next generation? They have some options. Obviously, they can announce a bunch of new and interesting first-party games for the system. Microsoft does have quite a few internal studios that could work on a new IP, but most of them aren’t in the business of the big-budget, showstopper games that would draw in crowds. The more likely option is they will make a number of content deals with third-party developers.
Microsoft has been living off the success of others’ games because instead of spending money on development, they just put up some cash to get DLC earlier, or exclusively. Because of their co-marketing efforts, people think of buying games on the 360 first because that is the name they see in the ads. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deal struck with EA to get content for their games on the Durango first, and the deal with Activision on Call of Duty map packs will continue for at least the next couple of years. They won’t fight for exclusive games, just the more important mindshare.
After the Sony event in February, the PS4 brand had widespread recognition. It was the talked about thing in consumer electronics for two or three weeks. After that, talk died down. It became a simple fact of life that the PS4 was coming out, but it wasn’t generating any positive headlines. It just was. Microsoft was silent. Many rumors were brought up (a lot of them rehashes, but that is a different story) regarding the potentially upcoming Durango. A lot were taken in a negative way. Amidst all of the crazy rumors and speculation, Microsoft stayed silent.
There was nothing to be gained from breaking the silence in the middle of March. They would generate headlines for a few weeks then, like Sony, their momentum would disappear. In waiting until May 21, Microsoft allowed themselves two things: the ability to keep momentum rolling into E3, and time to react to what Sony showed. After they take the stage that day, they will be the biggest thing being talked about in games until the biggest event in games happens. That kind of mindshare and momentum is a marketer’s dream. They have the opportunity to take the last-second shot in a tie ball game. It is all on them.
The 360 survived this entire generation without having a good interface. It went from the blades, a look people liked, but functioned horribly; to the NXE, a design people disliked, but operated well; to the new NXE, which was basically the same thing; to the Metro design, which both looked and performed like ass. The current state of the 360 interface is an atrocity. It takes me a good minute to even make it to the dashboard to boot into a game. That has to be solved and, to me, it is the most important thing they have to get right.
They have other cards they can play to please people, too. They can change the structure of Xbox Live. On the SideQuest you will have heard me argue with my idiot co-hosts that Microsoft will never make online gameplay free, because Xbox Live makes so much money in subscription fees it’s stupid. I stand by that. That move is Microsoft’s “In Case of Emergency” glass that will be broken if they are failing. That said, if they take the Netflixes, and the Internet Explorers out from behind the pay wall, I wouldn’t be even a little surprised. If nothing else, I would expect another tier of Xbox Live being added for the power users. I don’t know what the incentive would be there, but it may happen.
Expect rumors and speculation to be flying about for the next few weeks. We will all be falling into the trap laid by some Microsoft executive, but it can be very fun. It is like trying to guess what present you are going to get on Christmas morning.
Whether Microsoft goes for the core audience or the mainstream, the unveiling on May 21st is sure to be interesting to watch.
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